Vincenzo Atella - University of Rome Tor Vergata
3-ott-2018 - Ora:
Polo Santa Marta, Via Cantarane 24, Sala Vaona
The ageing process in Europe calls for a better understanding of the future disease prevalence, life expectancy and patterns of inequalities in health outcomes. In this paper we present EU-FEM, a multi-risk multi-morbidity dynamic microsimulation model of health status and health demand in Europe, with the aim of reproducing for the first time comparable European long-term trends in individual health status. Given the dynamic structure of the model, we allow individual health status to evolve over time according to individual characteristics. We use data from SHARE (waves from 1 to 5) to obtain a homogenous comparative analysis for 10 European countries. Supported by several internal and external validation tests, our model provides reliable forecasts of the evolution of prevalences of major chronic conditions, life expectancy, disability free and quality adjusted life years and health expenditures. Furthermore, we provide evidence of a growing socio-economic status (SES) gradient in the health status of elderly patients. Our findings represent a valid contribution to support policy makers in designing and implementing effective interventions in the healthcare sector.